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#economics

86 posts60 participants8 posts today
Continued thread

“We have lots of bad economic policy in the world, but we’ve never seen anything this amateur or purposely destructive at the national level from a G7 economy,” says Gillezeau. “I think that there are pretty reasonable odds they cast themselves into another Great Depression, right?”
#depression #Canada #economics #collapse #USpolitics
thestar.com/politics/federal/d

Toronto Star · Bruce Arthur: Donald Trump has pushed America into a golden age of stupid. Now’s Canada’s chance to be smartBy Bruce Arthur

There are people who think Trump is smart.

“There has certainly been no piece of trade policy in my lifetime that is at this level of stupidity, right?” said Rob Gillezeau, an assistant professor of economic analysis and policy at the University of Toronto. “It’s not grounded in anything intelligent. Like, they’re kind of just like ignoring economics altogether.”
#collapse #trade #Canada #tariffs #economics #USpolitics
thestar.com/politics/federal/d

Toronto Star · Bruce Arthur: Donald Trump has pushed America into a golden age of stupid. Now’s Canada’s chance to be smartBy Bruce Arthur
Replied in thread

So what is China going to do? Retaliatory #tariffs? Possibly.

But the smart move for China here is to quietly lubricate trade networks that simply bypass the U.S.A., and possibly #Canada and the U.S.M. too unless they manage to disentangle themselves from chains that criss-cross the U.S.A. borders.

No sabre-rattling. Simply "build it, and they will come".

More products for #BigClive to take apart, I suppose. (-:

🔴 🌍 🌡️ **Global warming of more than 3°C this century may wipe 40% off the world’s economy, new analysis reveals**

Timothy Neal

“_We found if the Earth warms by more than 3°C by the end of the century, the estimated harm to the global economy jumped from an average of 11% (under previous modelling assumptions) to 40% (under our modelling assumptions). This level of damage could devastate livelihoods in large parts of the world._”

🔗 theconversation.com/global-war.

#Climate #ClimateChange #Environment #GlobalEconomy #Economy #GlobalWarming #Research #Economics #Analysis @climatechange @economics

The ConversationGlobal warming of more than 3°C this century may wipe 40% off the world’s economy, new analysis revealsTo date, projections of how climate change will affect global GDP have been massively underestimated.

Really Keir Stramer has only one sensible strategic option after the Liberation Day tariffs:

Stop prevaricating & obstructing a rapprochement with the EU, quickly conclude a better trade arrangement & gain the UK better access to a major & wealthy neighbouring market.... regional trading blocs are likely coming quick & we need to be well-connected to the European one, not at the end of a string to a putative US economic zone...

Whether he does this is another matter....

State of the market:

* US stocks losing to ex-US
* Growth losing to value
* Discretionary losing to staples
* Breadth deteriorating
* Housing index back to Dec 2023 levels
* 63% of S&P 500 stocks < 200MA
* 60% of NASDAQ 100 stocks < 200MA

Could we catch a relief bounce? Sure. Just look at a chart from 2022. I'm still on the sidelines.

(Not financial advice)

Crude oil prices are going down partly because investors are expecting a global economic slowdown (with subsequent demand decrease) and a weakening market.

We might have lower gas prices in the short run, but it’s not necessarily a good economic sign.

#trump#tariffs#USA

“That’s a great combination: an unstable nongenius and a failed ideology that just keeps getting more and more extreme. ... I’ll just note what history suggests: that the next Democratic president will be charged with cleaning up the fourth consecutive Republic economic calamity.

When will the American people catch on? Maybe, for starters, when the Democrats start pointing it out.”

#Politics #USPolitics #Economics #GOPBudgetCrisis #RecessionRisk #History #Tariffs2025

newrepublic.com/article/193360

The New Republic · Of Course Trump Will Tank the Economy. It’s What Republicans Do.As the president’s “Liberation Day” nears, it’s time to liberate ourselves from the vicious cycle of Democrats having to clean up the GOP’s messes.