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#swingstates
#VicePresident #KamalaHarris #Surges with #EconomyVoters In #SwingStates As #ConvictedFelon #DonaldTrump #Fixates On #AntiTrans #Ads.
The latest #polls from #swingstates reveal that Trump may be #repeating the same #mistake that #cost #Republicans many #races in 2022.
https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/harris-surges-on-economy-voters-in
Final #Polls Before #ElectionDay Have #VP #KamalaHarris Beating #ConvictedFelon #DonaldTrump In Most #SwingStates.
Coupled with stunning #polling #results out of #Iowa, the #findings suggest Harris may have a more viable path to #winning the election-deciding 270 #ElectoralCollege #votes than previously indicated.
I just learned of this today. Seems like kind of a big deal.
I have a suspicion that the gender gap may have something to do with this.
I’m guessing I’m one of millions (billions?) of people worldwide feeling like they’re on pins & needles regarding the upcoming U.S. election, so I created this art to represent what many of us are feeling. U.S. citizens: if you haven’t already, PLEASE VOTE!
#Busloads of #Californians are heading to #swingstates. Can they #makeadifference?
WIth days left in a neck-and-neck #presidential #election, many anxious #California #Democrats are getting on #buses to neighboring #swingstates where they hope they can make a difference with #undecided #voters.
https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/10/swing-states-2024/
US-Wahl 2024: Die umkämpften Vorstädterinnen in den Swing States
Frauen aus den Vorstädten der Swing States haben den Ruf, konservativ zu sein. 2020 aber wählten sie mehrheitlich demokratisch. Welche Themen sind für sie jetzt relevant - und wie kommen Harris und Trump bei ihnen an? Von C. Sarre
Since 1981, the three major US stock market indices have performed *MUCH* better with a Democrat as President. These returns under a Democrat as President are *almost* DOUBLE the returns of those under Republicans as Presidents. WOW!
The #JusticeDepartment #warned #ElonMusk’s #AmericaPAC in recent days that his $1 million #sweepstakes to #registeredvoters in #swingstates may #violate #federallaw, people briefed on the matter told #CNN.
#Federallaw #bars #paying #people to #registertovote.
— #EminentDomain his #companies, #Revoke his #citizenship, and then #ban him from the country forever.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/elon-musk-justice-department-letter
I voted early today in the USA by mailing my ballot! I also mailed 200 postcards that my wife and I completed to get out the vote here in Arizona!
Okay...
I've spent some time doing my own analysis on this, here are a few things.
1. Yes, there are a lot of bad low quality #right leaning #polls showing up that are making it look like there's been a huge (as in, 7 point according to RCP) swing. This is all nonsense. However, it's moving reliable poll aggregators (#NateSilver, #538, #SilverBulliten, #FiveThirtyEight) about half a point more than it would otherwise.
2. #Polymarket numbers have everything to do with wishful thinking from #techbros, and I would 100% make money off it if I could be bothered to go through their asinine process of betting on their platform. (It involves #crypto)
3. Regardless of all that the polls, even high quality ones, have been more favorable to #Trump than to #Harris. Particularly in #SwingStates. (E.g. #Pennsylvania, #Michigan, #Wisconsin, #NorthCarolina, #Nevada, #Arizona)
4. This has been shown more from Trump gaining than in Harris losing any support. This means that some of the #undecided #voters are finally starting to say they'll support Trump.
5. Given that polls are typically off by 4.3%, anything, that puts the range of national polls at from 50.5:44.2 in favor of Harris to 45.9:48.6 in favor of Trump. The .5 to 1 point shift is not a game changer.
6. The one thing that is really significantly altered by the right-leaning polls is Pennsylvania, which goes from .1 in favor of Harris to .9 in favor of Harris.
7. Polls can shift dramatically. It would be totally normal for the polls to shift five points in one direction or the other in the coming weeks.
Summary:
Polls have gone from an #ElectoralCollege dead heat to an #ElectoralCollege dead heat.
Polls are mostly tracking PA, meaning winning PA wins the race, which is the state most likely to be underreporting Harris support.
There is a significant chance that the only purpose of the polls was to make a case for challenging an #election #Republicans think they're going to lose.
Harris is substantially more likely to destroy Trump than vice versa.
I would say Harris remains the slight favorite, but every single actions - and every #vote - is massively important to winning in #November.
#Republicans lean into #antitrans #messaging in closing weeks
#GOP #candidates are #attacking #transgender #rights in #swingstates, as part of a final #hateful #pitch to #voters.
#Women #Transgender #LGBTQ #LGBTQIA #Conservatives #Extremism #Fascism #Religion #Hategroups #RepublicanParty #Hate #Bigotry #Violence #Genocide #Discrimination #Transphobia #ThePartyOfHate #EmptyThePews
My Hubby’s and my ballots are going out in the mail tomorrow along with 200 of our handwritten postcards asking infrequent voters in our state (a swing state) to vote! Please join us in voting early. For more info: https://iwillvote.com/
The great climate-electoral group Lead Locally is looking for volunteers to canvass in Pennsylvania the last two weeks of the election to win on climate from the statehouse to the White House.
If you can’t make that kind of commitment, join a Lead Locally phonebank this Wednesday.
Links ->
https://hillheat.news/p/the-water-the-sand-the-mixing-of-the-sand-and-the-water
#climate #uspol #climatechange #climatevoters #papol #swingstates
#USA #Politics #Elections #Musk #Bribing #SwingStates: "“Elon Musk says on stage at a town hall that America PAC will be awarding $1 million every day until the election to a registered Pennsylvania voter who has signed his petition. Musk awarded the first $1 million this evening to someone at the town hall, bringing the guy onto the stage and handing him a jumbo check, lotto-style. Musk is essentially incentivizing likely Trump voters in PA to register to vote: Petition is to support for 1A and 2A, so basically R voters. But they also have to be registered to vote, so if they weren’t already, they would do it now.”
Though maybe some of the other things Musk was doing were of murky legality, this one is clearly illegal. See 52 U.S.C. 10307(c): “Whoever knowingly or willfully gives false information as to his name, address or period of residence in the voting district for the purpose of establishing his eligibility to register or vote, or conspires with another individual for the purpose of encouraging his false registration to vote or illegal voting, or pays or offers to pay or accepts payment either for registration to vote or for voting shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned not more than five years, or both…” (Emphasis added.)"
https://electionlawblog.org/?p=146397
"Former President Jimmy Carter told his family he was more interested in voting for Vice President Kamala Harris than his milestone birthday earlier this month.
On Wednesday, he got his wish by filling out a ballot for his fellow Democrat that was put in the drop box at the Sumter County Courthouse near his hometown of Plains."
~ Greg Bluestein and Ernie Suggs
"[Greg] Bluestein also confirms what other people had jumped the gun to report: Jimmy Carter’s vote for Kamala Harris was dropped in the dropbox at the Sumter County Courthouse."
~ Marcy Wheeler
#Georgia #EarlyVoting #SwingStates #JimmyCarter
/4
https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/10/16/325000-people-vote-in-first-day-of-early-voting-in-georgia/
Right-Wing Activists Pushed False Claims About #Election Fraud. Now They’re Recruiting #Poll Workers in Swing States.
—
Experts say these poll workers could sow distrust in #democracy and bolster court cases challenging the election. ProPublica and Wisconsin Watch reviewed dozens of hours of trainings and presentations in which activists discussed their plans.
"Early voting began today in Georgia, where more than 328,000 voters smashed the previous record of 136,000 set in 2020, during the worst of the pandemic. One of those voters was former president Jimmy Carter, who turned 100 on October 1 and said over the summer he was trying to stay alive to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris."
~ Heather Cox Richardson
"More than double the number of people voted early in the swing state of Georgia on Tuesday compared with 2020, with 328,000 people casting a vote in person or by mail on the first day they were able to."
~ Clea Skopeliti