What would have been better for the *EU*?
Brexit, Britain remaining in the EU, or if they had joined the € instead of Brexit?

@EU_Commission I remember when taking a trip through France and Belgium to Germany needed multiple foreign currencies. So much easier to travel between Euro zone countries.

I also remember that before the Gammons got uppity I had the right of freedom to travel in the EU.

Yes I know project Leave won the referendum and I'm over it.

I still hate Thatcher!

Speculation: I think the penny is finally dropping on the #Remain voters turned #Brexit implementation supporters that have enabled the hard #Brexit we are seeing.

The pandemic (mis)management, the #Ukraine war, the obvious #austerity-induced fragility of public services & the climate crisis that requires decisive action has exposed the frailty of our democracies. People want to be heard.

And #Brexit, no #austerity, in the UK, is the original sin.

We need to clean up our act at home.

Now what is really important is to understanding the timing.

Why does the "penny" drop?

Many protest #Leave voters, as I showed, were ahead of their #Remain peers.

For Leave voting areas we know that this may be because #Brexit is hurting them the hardest.

I show this in:
"Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of #brexit

https://tinyurl.com/mu3xrcp3

Check out the interactive visualization

https://brexitcost.org/

(unfortunately ESRC/Warwick do not think its impactful to update this)

Now it is NOT surprising that support for "implementing #Brexit" is collapsing.

This support was upheld by the #Remain voters who turned to "support #Brexit" out of their wish to adhere to democratic norms.

This is what the YouGov figures reveals as fundamentally #Brexit never had a broad genuine mandate.

It was the political and media shaping of the narrative around #Brexit to which some of my academic peers contributed that enabled #Brexit to be implemented in its current form.

Fact 4: Fundamental support (the stock/average supporter) of #Brexit is dying out. @simonjhix has a nice write up here https://euideas.eui.eu/2022/12/14/will-support-for-brexit-become-extinct/

But it goes a bit further than this. The main question is "why" has support for "implementing #Brexit" remained high.

Well, there is a lot of people who voted #Remain that wanted to adhere to the democratic principle that the vote should be implemented.

In the second phase of #Brexit - the shape of #Brexit - this group gave the Tories a carte blanche.

Now there is this interesting group of #Leave voters who disproportionately express #Regret #Bregret among those who did not expect #Leave to win (i.e. those that thought chances of Leave victory were low).

My interpretation is that these are basically people who thought "their vote doesnt matter" but "wanted to send a message".

Some would call this a good definition of a #protestvote.

If this group had not voted or not "protested", #Remain would have won.

Its the "ridiculous" #Brexit.

#Olympic #champion #CasterSemenya #wins #humanrights #case but #testosterone #rules may #remain for years.

https://apnews.com/article/caster-semenya-sex-eligbility-court-ruling-0ad6f46e1357659f8cc315dde7b01faf

@Tutanota

I can hardly believe it:

91% voted #Remain!
Brits, take notice.

But first, why is #Brexit not working for those Leave voters that change their mind?

This is speaking for itself. Its the economy, stupid!

And funnily, the biggest shifts to support #Rejoin now come from three places: North East, London and South West. Here is why.

North East/South West - was home to many #Brexit protest voters that were screwed by #austerity.

London - has some protest voters but many #Remain voters turned #Brexit implementation supporters to adhere to a democratic norm.

Fact 4: Fundamental support for #Brexit is basically dying out. @simonjhix did a nice short thread on this here https://euideas.eui.eu/2022/12/14/will-support-for-brexit-become-extinct/

But it goes a bit further than this. The main question is "why" has support for "implementing #Brexit" remained high.

Well, there is a lot of people that voted #Remain that wanted adherence to the democratic principle that the vote should be implemented.

In the second phase of #Brexit - the shape of #Brexit - this group gave the Tories a carte blanche.